PMcrunch

These tough times are different from past recessions in that "visibility is low". What I mean by that is that it is not just a matter of seeing that sales had declined a certain amount, or that certain costs had reached a certain amount; it is not just that there is a general slimming or pruning of weaker competitors across the board. The problem is that it is very hard to predict with any reasonable level of certainty what is going to happen next and, thus, we find ourselves driving through our challenges "with low visibility". What can we as project and program managers do to negotiate our way and lead our projects and programs to success in these times of low visibility?

I suggest that we should be given special attention in 3 different ways on our projects given these precarious conditions. It always pays to have a special focus and I think these are good ones for these times.

1. Think out of the box with risk assessment and management.

Risk management includes all that could possibly go awry on our projects and programs. In these unique times, we need to brainstorm from as many angles as possible for potential risks. We need to think about things, such as catastrophic sales decreases, deflation, inflation, inability of customers to pay, suppliers going out of business, and much more. We really need to have backup plans for each and every one of these crazy risks that we can identify. This can be our way of bringing more certainty, leadership, vision, and guidance to our projects and programs.

2. Control expenditure in the short term.

Since visibility is low, we just cannot afford to overextend ourselves. In the case of a project, where funds have already been committed, we must remember that the stewardship of those funds is still our management. We need to spend that money cautiously and carefully, keeping in mind the risks that we have identified and try to spend money within our range of vision. What I mean by that is that we must spend the money where we can see clearly what our result will be in the shorter term and, otherwise, hold back as much as possible.

3. Use instrumentation for the long range.

Like an airplane pilot we need to "use our instrumentation" to guide us in the longer term direction that the project or program is intended to support. In flying an airplane, instruments incorporate the equivalent of business rules, projections, and other algorithms that can enable us to measure and predict logically what might happen so that we go in the right direction. For example, we know that one day an economic recovery will be at hand, and we want to acknowledge that in our plan and be ready for that day. We need to keep our projects pointed to the long term, even though we are refraining from spending in the short term.

In tough times, and when visibility is low, we need to rely on our judgment based upon a small number of guiding principles. I think these three can be a starting point in many, many situations. They can help us get through these times of low visibility and help us to bring out projects forward successfully to the other side of the fog when conditions again become clear.

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John Reiling, PMP
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